Re: [CryonicsEurope (Yahoo)] new organisations, and cloning

> First of all, I think it will be very difficult to
> find any persons to rent or buy the other 3 spaces in
> the dewar if you buy one.

Yes, you would need to budget for any such additional patients as a bonus
rather than an essential part of any business plan.

> An organisation such as CI has the biggest chance of
> surviving on the long-term because they also have a
> financial stability.

Agreed, so any new organisation needs lots of capital and to own its own
facility and plant in order to compete on an equal basis.

It is my prediction that any European facility that will last will
eventually be built by CI as a subsidiary when there are enough patients in
Europe to warrant it - at least hundreds. It ought to be possible to
calculate when this would become viable. Inflation is likely to be the
driving force - costs of transport to the USA rise much faster than general
inflation. So if the costs of transporting the annual number of
cryopreservations from Europe = x and the costs (including notional interest
on capital) of running a facility are less than x then it becomes sensible
to run a facility. I say "notional interest on capital", because in order to
meet with CI operational procedures, the buildings and plant would be
purchased not leased, so as to minimise the risk of financial failure.

Note that European CI members have to have trusts valued at nearly half as
much again over the cryopreservation minima in order to meet the full costs
with transport. A time will come when there are enough members that it would
be economic for them to be able to reduce their trusts or life insurance (if
the latter is possible) in favour of supporting a facility. (eg transport
cost t = $10k, facility contribution f = $5k - in simplistic terms.)

Of course the transport costs are paid when the patient deanimates, whereas
the facility costs would need to be paid earlier. This would make the whole
idea a lot less attractive. Unless there are a really large number of
potential members, then costs per member would be substantial. Also there is
the problem that out of the members in Europe, those living really near the
facility (less than three hours) will always be quite small. The motivation
to contribute to a facility reduces with the distance. If the facility were
in or near a big city like London where more people are concentrated, then
costs and risks are higher. If the storage facility is in a different
European country, transepts costs would still be high.

Calculation at Present:
On the basis that money "costs" around 10%, and that there are 20 members,
and the total transport costs are $10*20= $200k, then it is reasonable to
spend up to $2m to start a facility, if anyone was willing to put it up. Of
course at this stage such a thing would hardly be a wise use of money. Also,
wherever in Europe such a facility was built, there would still be transport
costs to it for most members as stated above.

All these points taken together tend to suggest it will be a long while
before it becomes sensible and viable to build a facility in Europe given
that the Cryonics Institute provides a service there. But then, if one
person has the money and builds the thing, then maybe people will use it in
time, but time needs to pass in order to demonstrate that it is not another
transient organisation. During that time the facility would be very
expensive to operate just for one or two people stored in it.

> My opinion also is that in this case cloning is
> irrelevant.

Agreed also - but if the option is cloning or nothing, then I suppose you
could go for cloning, but bear in mind that the process can at best produce
nothing more than an identical twin. It is also cheap - get a NDA sample
from the body and contract to store that somewhere. If you become a
suspension members of a cryonics organisation, they may even do it for you
at nominal cost.

Sincerely, John de Rivaz: http://www.deRivaz.com
my homepage links to Longevity Report, Fractal Report, music, Inventors'
report, an autobio and various other projects:
http://www.geocities.com/longevityrpt
http://www.autopsychoice.com - http://www.cryonics-europe.org -
http://www.porthtowan.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "David Verbeke" <seti24belgium@yahoo.com>
To: <cryonicseurope@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: 27 June 2001 05:09
Subject: [CryonicsEurope (Yahoo)] Trygve Bauge

> Dear Trygve Bauge,
>
> you posted a lot of messages lately refering the case
> of Mrs. Kostadinova's father so I decided to write you
> my own opinion about this case.
>
> First of all, I think it will be very difficult to
> find any persons to rent or buy the other 3 spaces in
> the dewar if you buy one. People who want to be
> suspended will choose for an organisation like the CI
> that has already a lot of members and is stable.
>
> An organisation such as CI has the biggest chance of
> surviving on the long-term because they also have a
> financial stability. So I think it is unlikely that
> people will put their money in an organisation that
> wants to start up in a rush to suspend it's first
> patient that's already death a couple of months, I
> think that's not a very good start.
>
> Ofcourse, if Mrs. Kostadinova really wants to suspend
> her father she should go ahead, but I respect the
> decisions made by Alcor and the CI to not do so, it's
> logical.
>
> My opinion also is that in this case cloning is
> irrelevant. The clone of Mrs. Kostadinova's father
> would be no different of any other human being that
> would be cloned because the identity of her father
> wouldn't be in that body, it would just be a look
> alike.
>
> Sincerely,
>
>
> David Verbeke
> http://communities.msn.be/cryonicsBelgium/homepage
>
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Received on Wed Jun 27 03:34:57 2001